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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."